The effects of a strong dollar ripple across global markets, stirring varied sentiments among exporters and traders alike. For many, the wonder holds whether the robust dollar serves as a booster for global trade recovery or as a wet blanket dampening prospects. As observed from recent data compiled by Bloomberg Economics, the answer seems complex. Their trade tracker, evaluating the health of global trade, suggests that the strong dollar casts a shadow over the recovery, with indicators indicating a dip below normal levels, particularly in the realm of new export orders from American firms.

Among these metrics, one bright spot remains: flow through the Port of Los Angeles, America’s largest maritime trading hub. The port has seen an uptick in activity, attributed predominantly to a substantial volume of imported containers. Nevertheless, this rise in traffic starkly contrasts the overall export situation, highlighting the nuanced impact of the dollar's strength.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently posited that global trade is projected to grow by a modest 2.3% this year, lagging behind the broader economic growth forecasted at 3.1%. Such figures hint at the complexities arising from the dollar's performance affecting international trading dynamics significantly.

Advertisement

As per the latest assessment from the Oxford Economics, the potent dollar is anticipated to persist until 2025, with a potential softening in 2026. Several structural factors contribute to this dollar strength, including a relatively vigorous U.S. economy, favorable interest rate differentials, and improvements in the U.S. balance of payments.

According to Adam Slater, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, both cyclical and structural factors are strengthening the dollar. "The growth disparity between the U.S. and other G7 economies has recently been pronounced," he commented. Additionally, the shift to being a net energy exporter and robust foreign direct investment further buttresses the dollar's standing.

Yet, the phenomenon where exporters also function as importers unfolds a delicate balance. A potent dollar means reduced prices for American imports while simultaneously escalating overseas shipping costs. In a world grappling with inflation—for instance, surging global oil, food, and logistics prices—the weakness of local currencies leaves importing countries increasingly strained. What once may have been welcomed by exporters now becomes a source of concern.

Trade experts emphasize the dual role of exporters as they frequently depend on imports for their production needs. Cost pressures are filtering through global manufacturing sectors. Jingyi Pan, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that rising input costs are often rationalized by adverse exchange rates in regions like Japan. April marked a 14-month peak in global input cost inflation as indicated by surveys of purchasing managers.

As expectations for U.S. rate cuts falter, fears are growing in various Asian nations regarding weakening local currencies. Traditionally, exporters favor a weaker currency; however, when swift and unexpected depreciations elevate costs and complicate business planning, anxiety takes hold. The Japanese corporate sector, for instance, has voiced unusual unease over the yen's depreciation despite short-term profits. With the yen at a thirty-year low, it's a situation that could soon complicate their supply chains.

Meanwhile, in South Korea, the won's 5% decline against the dollar this year has escalated the cost of imported raw materials. While South Korean exporters usually benefit from a competitive exchange rate, the current scenario poses challenges. The nation's heavy reliance on imported materials increases costs, compounded by the growing trend of offshoring, which means dollar gains translate less favorably back home.

This pain is particularly acute for SMEs that are hesitant to hedge against currency fluctuations, yet heavily dependent on foreign suppliers. Lee Eui-hyun, CEO of Seoul-based Daewoo Steel, remarked that the weak exchange rate forces higher payments for imported goods, all while contending with price pressure from competitors.

Earlier in April, the won fell below the perilous threshold of 1400, a level unseen since late 2022. According to Cho Gyeong Lyeob, a senior researcher at the Korea Economic Institute, a broad swath of industries—especially conglomerates borrowing overseas for capital expansion, steel, chemicals, energy importers, and airlines—are chiefly affected. He expressed that the negative ramifications of a weak won surpass its benefits.

While South Korea's exports have seen robust growth recently due to record demand from the U.S., with nearly a 14% year-on-year increase in April, there are palpable concerns from officials regarding the weakened won. In a remarkable joint statement, finance ministers from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea acknowledged the serious implications of the wons' depreciation.

Additionally, in a competitive landscape with other Asian nations, any potential advantage gained from a depreciated won could quickly evaporate, as competitors ascend the supply chain without such currency volatility to contend with. This predicament is particularly concerning for companies lacking financial tools to hedge against currency fluctuations. A survey conducted by the Korea Federation of SMEs in August last year showed that nearly half of small exporters lacked emergency plans amid currency instability.

Since the upheaval of 2008, many South Korean SMEs have avoided signing currency-linked derivatives contracts due to previous losses estimated at 2.7 billion USD stemming from hedging against a depreciating won. The survey also revealed that less than half of exporters perceive currency depreciation as advantageous for their profitability, while over a quarter deem it detrimental.

Further highlighting the multifaceted implications of currency strength is the service trade aspect, particularly paved by international tourism, an essential segment of global trade. The yen recently dipped to thirty-year lows against the dollar, prompting discussions surrounding travel dynamics. Tony Capuano, CEO of Marriott International, noted during a recent earnings call that 2024 marks a year filled with opportunities for U.S.-Japan travel collaborations. His conversations with the Japanese ambassador focused on boosting American tourism to Japan, with local officials suggesting that a weakened dollar-yen exchange rate could entice more visitors.

Conversely, the firm dollar means that now is an opportune moment for Americans traveling abroad. A recent traveler, Cecile Blot, shared her astonishment at the low dining costs she encountered in Argentina. She recounted a delightful meal in Buenos Aires with her mother, which came to approximately $60 for a spread of appetizers, steak, ribs, desserts, and a bottle of wine.

Research from Oxford Economics suggests that since early 2022, the effective value of the dollar has risen about 9%, surpassing long-term trends by approximately 10%. However, the current dollar strength does not set a record. Slater explains that while past dollar peaks have been higher, recent valuations indicate only a moderate overvaluation of around 6%. Hence, this does not seem to impede further dollar appreciation.

He adds that the enduring high share of the dollar in global major international financial transactions remains stable, thus reinforcing the capacity for the dollar's advantageous position on the world stage.